Only 35% of the voters feel his economic policies are working and fewer than forty percent approve of them.
His approval among the most critical elements of his 2008 coalition is suffering from a 25-30 percent drop in enthusiasm. According to an array of polls, Latinos, Gays, Blacks, women, voters under 30, income earners of less than $30,000 and Independents are defecting in droves. Such a drop in normally Democratic voting blocs could certainly diminish the margins Obama needs to off-set what is expected to be a robust Republican turnout in 2012.
The man can’t get to 50.
And a president needs to get to fifty percent of the vote in order to get re-elected. At this stage of his budget battle with Newt Gingrich in the 1990’s, for example, Bill Clinton had a 53% approval – a full ten points higher than Obama’s.
If a president’s vote share is under 50 going into the election, he is likely to lose as the undecided vote goes against him. Obama’s problem in getting to fifty is likely to mean that he will be a one term president.
For most of the GLBT community this is a daunting challenge. At least 70 percent of the gay/lesbian vote is expected to go Democratic, but the lack of enthusiasm may still shrink the over all turnout as disaffected Gays sit-out the 2012 election. And 70 percent is lower than the 80 percent that went to Al Gore and John Kerry.
The Obama economy is devastating to much of the GLBT community. Many gay restaurants, lounges and other entertainment businesses like tourism or publications have shutdown or laid off workers. The small business community and corporations are afraid to hire and have left 14 million people without jobs, and millions more who have seen their work hours reduced. This shrunk the purchasing power of millions of Gay workers.
Charges of rampant homophobia and emotionally violent language regarding Medicare, AIDS and Social Security (“The GOP is Killing Medicare”…”The Republicans are throwing Granny and her wheel-chair over a cliff”…”The Right-wing wants to lynch people with AIDS”) will certainly be pounded relentlessly into the conscience of Gay voters by GLBT political action committees out of New York and Washington, D.C. But such predictable siren calls and alarm bells may not be as effective as they have been in the past.
Evidence that traditional politics may be changing in the gay precincts occurred last year when one out of three self-identified gay voters told Gay-run polls that they voted for the Republican/Tea Party in 2010, according to CNN and FOX NEWS. And history shows that in Republican landslide election years, a significant number of Gay voters join the GOP band wagon. During the Reagan-Bush and Gingrich landslides of the 1980’s and 90’s, approximately 45 percent of Gay voters moved to the Republican column according to the New York Times.
